86,000 Jobs Added in October — and the Bigger Raises Went to Job-Changers

Private employers added 86,000 jobs in October. Same as September. A little ahead of the 75,000 economists expected. And the people who changed jobs got a 4.8% annual raise while the ones who stayed got 3%.

What ADP actually reported

The payrolls firm said private employers added 86,000 jobs in October. That matched September's downwardly revised total and came in slightly ahead of the 75,000 economists expected.

Gains were spread across sectors. Trade, transportation and utilities was the biggest gainer, adding 39,000 jobs. Education and health services picked up 28,000. Leisure and hospitality added 19,000. Financial activities added 15,000, construction added 13,000, and other services added 10,000.

Three sectors went the other way. Professional and business services cut 27,000 jobs. Natural resources and mining lost 8,000. Information services shed 2,000 — a sector that could be affected by the artificial intelligence buildout.

Every size of employer was hiring. Companies with 50 to 499 employees added 33,000 jobs. Small firms added 28,000, and large businesses added 24,000.

ADP's chief economist, Nela Richardson, said companies of every size were hiring last month.

That is the calm half of the report. The other half is where the money went.

The raises went to the people who changed jobs

Workers who changed jobs saw a 4.8% annual pay gain. Workers who stayed put got 3%. Overall, base pay rose 3.2% and gross pay rose 4.7% annually.

Nela Richardson said job-changers were "lured by a combination of bonuses, overtime, and more hours" on top of higher base pay. She added that "earnings growth for these workers hit its fastest pace since March 2024."

People are moving, too. A Bureau of Labor Statistics report Tuesday showed quits reached their highest level since March 2025.

Three numbers, one story: 86,000 new jobs, a 4.8% raise for the people who moved, a 3% raise for the people who stayed. If you sell to households, that gap is a customer list.

Why this lands this week

The ADP report comes before Friday's BLS count of nonfarm payrolls. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect a gain of 59,000 in that report. September came in at 29,000.

The report described the labor market as showing fresh signs of stabilization.

My read on what that means for a sales floor: hiring is not the story. Mobility is. Someone who just changed jobs has more money and a brand new set of problems — a new schedule, a longer commute, a house that suddenly needs work, a first free weekend in months. That is a buying window, and windows close.

What it means if you sell (my read)

This part is opinion. I read jobs reports for one reason: to figure out who is about to spend money. Over $75 million in online sales, built two companies to eight figures, and built multiple 8-figure sales teams.

Picture a home services company. Your best lead this month is not the guy with the burst pipe. It is the household where someone just took a new job with a raise and a bonus. They have cash, and they have a deadline — they want the house handled before the new routine starts. Those people answer the phone. They also shop fast, so the company that calls back in five minutes beats the company that calls back in five hours. The jobs numbers do not change that math. They just put more of those households in your market at the same time.

Picture an RV dealer. A job-changer with a bonus and more hours is exactly the person who walks your lot on a Saturday. But a 4.8% raise does not make someone a cash buyer. It makes them a payment buyer. If your ads shout price and your salespeople talk monthly, you are speaking their language. If your ads shout price and your lot is full of units that are hard to finance, you will blame the economy for a problem you built in your own ad account.

Then there is the other side of the ledger. Professional and business services lost 27,000 jobs. Information services lost 2,000. Those are real households, and some of them are in your zip code. My read: this is not a spray-and-pray market. You need to know which towns are adding paychecks and which ones are losing them, and put your budget where the raises are.

How I would use this week

1. Split your last 90 days of leads by town. Open your CRM or your lead spreadsheet, add a town column, and sort by closed deals, not by leads. You are looking for the three towns where your close rate is highest. Twenty minutes.

1. Time your own follow-up. Take the last ten form fills and check the gap between the lead coming in and the first call going out. Write the average on a sticky note. If it is over an hour, that is the number to fix this week, not the ad budget.

1. Write one ad for the job-changer. Not a generic price ad. Something that sounds like it was written for someone whose schedule just changed. Two lines of text, one photo, one clear next step.

1. Use these prompts to get there faster. Paste one into your AI tool of choice.

Home services: ask for three short Facebook ad hooks for a home services company in a named town, written for homeowners who just started a new job and want the work finished before their new routine begins. Tell it to lead with speed and easy scheduling, not price, and to keep each hook to one short line.

RV dealers: ask for three short Facebook ad hooks for an RV dealer near a named town, aimed at buyers who just got a raise or a bonus and want a unit before spring. Tell it to lead with the monthly payment and weekend trips, and to keep each hook to one short line.

Market research: ask it to list ten towns within an hour's drive of your city, with median household income for each, whether each one is growing or shrinking, and one line on whether a home services company should target it. Tell it to rank the list.

1. Run more creative than feels comfortable. Test several hooks and several photos in the same week, then kill the ones that do not produce calls. One ad is a guess. Six ads is a test.

1. Trace the money, not the clicks. Set up your reporting so you can see which ad produced a lead, which lead became a call, and which call became a sale. Reach and clicks look good on a Friday. They do not pay the truck note.

1. Put Friday on the calendar. The BLS number lands Friday. Block 15 minutes to read it and check whether it confirms or contradicts what ADP said. Then leave your budget alone for a week. One report is a data point, not a strategy.

Mistakes I would avoid

• Raising prices because the report looked good. 86,000 is steady. It is not a boom. Raising prices on a steady month is how you hand your next ten leads to a competitor.
• Waiting for Friday. The ADP number is already in front of you. Wait for perfect information and you will launch your ads the same week everyone else does.
• Running last year's ad. The buyer changed. Someone who just switched jobs cares about timing and cash flow, not the things they cared about 12 months ago.
• Buying reach and calling it marketing. Reach is not a lead. If you cannot trace a dollar of spend to a phone call, you are guessing.