ChatGPT's Search Volume Is Now a Fifth of Google's — and It Carries Ads

ChatGPT's search-like query volume is now about one-fifth of Google's, and ChatGPT now carries ads. That number came from OpenAI's Adam Fry on a podcast, and Search Engine Roundtable reported it on November 4. The same day, Taboola told investors its quarterly revenue fell 6.9% and blamed AI summaries. My read: if you sell boats or run HVAC calls, that is your lead flow moving.

The Number Came Out of a Podcast, Not an Earnings Call

On November 4, Search Engine Roundtable reported that OpenAI's Adam Fry told interviewer Alex Kantrowitz the volume of search-like queries on ChatGPT is now about a fifth of Google's. Fry's definition is wide: any question that sends the tool to the web counts. He named the kinds of lookups that send ChatGPT out to search the web: people, places, things, finance and health.

The growth is the part that should get your attention. Fry said the user base went from one billion to 1.2 billion in two months — about 100 million in one month, then another 100 million the next. Glenn Gabe added that voice reaches 250 million users a week. Kantrowitz put Bing's share of search at 5%, and Glenn Gabe, who called Fry ChatGPT's consumer product lead, said ChatGPT is now bigger than Bing.

One caution before you panic. Schwartz pointed out that Google reports its own search volume has never been higher, so a fifth of a number that is still growing does not prove Google is shrinking. My read: Google does not have to shrink for your lead flow to move. It just has to stop growing while the other side keeps adding users at the pace Fry described.

And the thing that turns a chat window into a marketing channel is already switched on: ChatGPT now carries ads.

The Same Week, the Open Web Sent Its Bill

Taboola sells placements beneath articles. When readers get their answer without opening the article, there is less page left to sell. That is the story in its numbers: revenue for the third quarter dropped 6.9% to $462.3 million, and the company lowered its full-year outlook. Guidance for the fourth quarter sits between $477 million and $493 million, which works out to a 7% drop at the midpoint, and the count of Scaled Advertisers slipped about 4% to 2,081.

Management did not hide the reason. "The environment in which we operate is changing," said founder and chief executive Adam Singolda, adding that the way people find and read content across the open web is shifting. The detail worth reading is buried in the 10-Q filing: Taboola and Yahoo each filed a mediation notice after September 30, each asserting material non-compliance with the agreement dated November 28, 2022. Yahoo brought in $68.2 million of revenue that quarter, which is 14.8% of the total.

Not everyone got hit the same way. Digital ad sales at the New York Times rose 12% to $109.9 million, though the company had told investors in August to expect growth in the mid-to-high teens. The Times picked up roughly 420,000 net digital-only subscribers, up from 280,000 in the second quarter, for a total of 13.76 million. Direct relationships held up better than rented distribution. My read: that is not a coincidence, and it is the first thing I would copy.

Criteo went the other direction and leaned in. Its third-quarter revenue fell 11% and Contribution ex-TAC fell 17%, but Criteo has gone from seven countries with ChatGPT to 89 in a few months. "ChatGPT has been our fastest-growing partnership and channel for some time," said chief executive Michael Komasinski. Criteo did not put a revenue number on that part of the business.

Then there is the content bill. Anthropic struck its first licensing deal with a digital news publisher, paying the Associated Press for election coverage, while OpenAI has done more than a dozen similar deals, including The Atlantic, News Corp and Axel Springer. The companies behind the chat windows now pay for the material that goes into them. That is what a real channel looks like.

The Agents Are Doing the Searching Now

Here is the part most owners will skip past, and it is the part that decides who gets the call.

On November 4, Microsoft Clarity rolled out agentic analytics and Ask Clarity. A new dashboard called Agent Activity lists the AI agents that land on a site and what each one does, from search to checkout. Simulation assessments check whether an agent can finish a task, and report the outcome, the time it took and the number of interactions. The first simulations cover commerce and travel. The Brand Agents product now covers local businesses too, handling lead capture and booking.

Microsoft said the count of AI agents almost doubled in three weeks, reaching nearly 2 million.

My read: software that shops, compares and books on a customer's behalf is now walking your site. It does not care about your hero image. It cares whether it can find your hours, your service area, your inventory and your phone number, and whether the form actually works.

What This Means If You Sell Boats or Fix Furnaces

Opinion time. Two scenarios, both hypothetical, both the kind of thing I expect to see more of.

Picture a boat dealer outside a lake town. A buyer with two kids and a set budget asks a chat window which deck boats are worth looking at near the water. The answer comes back with a few names and a short reason for each. Your dealership is not one of them — not because your boats are worse, but because the model read pages it could parse and yours was a photo gallery with a phone number buried in the footer. That buyer never typed a search, never saw your ad, and never knew you existed.

Picture an HVAC company late on a January night. A homeowner with no heat asks a chat window who to call. The chat window gives a name, a phone number and a line about emergency service. Someone gets that call. The company that got it had a page that loaded fast, said it handles emergency calls around the clock in plain text, and put a tap-to-call button at the top of the screen.

Now the money side. Ads inside ChatGPT exist — the source says so plainly — but nothing in these sources tells you how a small dealer or contractor buys them, what they cost, or who is eligible. I am not going to pretend otherwise. What I can tell you is that Criteo went from seven countries to 89 with ChatGPT in a few months, which tells you where the ad money is heading.

How I Would Use This Week

1. Ask the machine your customers' questions. Open ChatGPT and type the five questions you get on the phone every week. Ask who fixes AC in your city. Ask which pontoon dealers near your lake are worth calling. Write down who shows up and who does not. Fifteen minutes, and it tells you more than a keyword report.

1. Test your site on your phone, on cell data, not office wifi. Time how long it takes to load. Count the taps it takes to call you. If it is more than one tap, that is a leak.

1. Put the call path above everything else. Tap-to-call, a short form, and a chat window. Not a contact page two clicks deep.

1. Write your pages for something that reads, not something that scrolls. Plain sentences: what you sell, where you sell it, what you charge, what hours you answer, what brands you carry. If a machine cannot read it, it cannot recommend you.

1. Track calls, not clicks. A click is a maybe. A call is a job.

1. Ask where your ad money actually runs. If your agency cannot tell you whether chat-based placements are part of the plan, that is your answer.

1. Answer fast. The lead that comes in late at night is worth more than the one that comes in the next morning.

Prompts to paste in, one per trade:

• Which three pontoon dealers near your city should I call for a used boat, and what should I ask each one?
• My furnace is blowing cold air and it is below freezing. Who should I call in your city tonight, and what should I ask before I book?
• I need a yearly AC tune-up in your city. What should a fair price look like, and who does it well?

Then run the same prompts with your own business name in them and see what comes back. That is your new first impression.

Mistakes I See Owners Make

• Chasing the new channel before fixing the old one. A chat window that recommends you still sends the customer to a page that has to earn the call.
• Treating this as a fad. A fifth of Google's query volume is not a fad. It is a budget line.
• Buying traffic to a page that cannot take a call. You are paying to send people to a dead end.
• Letting a lead sit overnight. My read: in HVAC, the first company to answer usually wins the job.